Risk
What can go wrong.
A firm built on verification cannot be silent about risk. Below is what we consider the honest account: the risks our approach carries, and the limits of what our controls can achieve.
Trading losses
Every strategy loses money. Losing streaks are not a malfunction; they are the normal shape of a distribution with positive expectancy. Our mandates are sized so that a bad run is survivable, not so that it cannot happen.
Leverage
Futures carry leverage by construction. A small adverse move can produce a loss that is large relative to the margin posted. Position risk is therefore capped in absolute currency terms, not as a share of notional.
Gaps and illiquidity
Markets can move through a stop without trading at it. Overnight gaps, thin sessions and fast markets can produce losses larger than the intended risk on a position. No stop is a guarantee.
Key person
A single trader carries a single set of habits, and a single principal carries a single judgement. Concentration in people is a real risk at our scale and is mitigated only partially by written procedure and a standing deputy arrangement.
Counterparty and platform
Assets sit with a broker and are recorded through third-party infrastructure. Failure, insolvency or prolonged outage at any of those parties is outside our control, whatever the compensation schemes may provide afterwards.
Operational and technical
Connectivity loss, order errors, incorrect contract sizes and data faults occur in every trading operation. Our answer is a mandatory reporting duty and an emergency authority to flatten positions, not the pretence that errors will not happen.
Controls constrain damage. They do not prevent loss.
Mechanical limits stop a bad day from becoming a bad month, and a bad month from becoming an existential event. That is what they are for and that is all they do.
What the limits achieve
Position risk is capped before entry. A day ends after a defined number of net losers. A week ends at a defined drawdown. A mandate freezes at a defined level from its peak, without discussion.
What they cannot achieve
They cannot prevent a losing month, restore a lost edge, or protect against a market that moves through every level at once. A frozen mandate is a loss that has been contained, not a loss that was avoided.
Where the system is weakest
At the moment a reasonable argument is made for an exception. That is why the response at each drawdown level is written down in advance, before anyone has a reason to want it changed.
Simulation is not prediction. Our scenario models estimate how a framework behaves under assumptions; they cannot tell us what markets will do.
We publish no return figures and no projections. Past or simulated results are not indicative of future outcomes, and any track record short enough to be new is short enough to be luck.
When results do exist, they will be recorded at broker level and verified independently, so that they can be examined rather than believed.